Auburn -3.5 2.2% play
Auburn lost against South Carolina last week, because of Bo Nix. Nix had 3 interceptions that led to 21 points for South Carolina, and Auburn was terrible in the red zone with 3 field goals. They were +184 yards in the game and should have beaten South Carolina. Now they get to go on the road to face an Ole Miss team that is arguably the worst defense in the nation ranking 74th in EPA run defense out of 77 teams, and 72nd in EPA pass defense. Auburn is 29-0 since the start of the 2016 season when they score 28 or more points, which the total indicates here, and they are 25-2 since 2016 when they rush for 200+ yards, which they should do with the emergence of Tank Bigsby off back to back 100 yard rushing games. Nix has pressed at times, and they have faced a difficult defensive schedule facing pass defenses ranking 14th, 17th, 5th, and 32nd, in EPA pass defense. Here he faces #72, and the Ole Miss can’t stop the run as I mentioned. I think this is Nix’s best game yet, and I think Auburn can have a balanced attack, which makes them a dangerous offense.
Ole Miss is an offense that can be tough to prepare for, but it could be possible that Arkansas just laid out a blueprint as Matt Corral really had trouble with Arkansas throwing 6 interceptions as Ole Miss turned it over 7 times. I’m banking on Auburn picking something up from that game plan and I thought they played well on defense holding South Carolina to 4.57 yards per play, which would be top 10 for a defense a season ago.
